Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Game 4 of the NLDS Cubs vs. Giants

The Cubs are batting .202 in the Playoffs with an on base percentage of .237. Nauseating and predictable performances whenever the post season begins.  Hitters cannot depend on talking pitches and drawing walks like during regular games.  

 Luckily, the Chicago pitching staff does everything on the team, including drive in runs.  Today’s key player is John Lackey.  The right-hander is 3 – 3 lifetime versus the Giants with a3.34 ERA and WHIP of 1.200.  WHIP is Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched.  It equates to having 1.2 runners on base each inning.  This opponents offensive pressure should be manageable barring no defensive errors.   

The Giants are equally poor at the plate this postseason.  Hitters average just .216 and scoring 2.7 runs per game.  Let us all hope San Francisco’s struggles offensively continue or the Cubs hitters give some run support for once.  The Giants have a record of 7 – 3 against the Cubs at AT&T Park the past three seasons.  That includes 60% of the games going over the total.   That makes the home team and over the obvious parlay.  The current betting reflects it with 51% of the money on the Giants and 80% predicting Over 7.5 runs.  The Cubs money line opened low at -122 and backers drove the number up to -130.  Since then, the line trickled down below opening number and currently -121.  Despite the overwhelming betting pressure on the game total, the line stays at 7.5 runs.  If the Giants can continue the series, game 4 is Cueto vs Lester on Thursday night.  This contest directly interferes with NFL game between Denver and San Diego.  Think about these factors before making investments.   

San Francisco starter (Matt Moore) today never faced the Cubs during his career.  The left-hander played the majority of games with the Tampa Bay Rays outside the National League.   Matt Moore heads into the postseason with some serious momentum, giving up only two runs with a 17:2 K:BB over his final two regular season starts.  K:BB is a ratio between 17 strikeouts (K) per 2 walks (BB).  Impressive numbers for a player who seems to flourish in pressure situations.  Latest example was the Wild Card clinching game versus the Dodgers. 

The good news for Cub fans is Joe Maddon should have plenty of insight on how to hit his former player.  The skipper also chose Lackey to start which must give Chicago the advantage in this spot. Giant’s third basemen Eduardo Nunez is out with a hamstring injury.  This is huge since he is batting .333 against Lackey.  Also, four out of the five hits went for extra bases.  Things should go smoother for Lackey with Eduardo’s bat out of the lineup.  This should be a great matchup.   Enjoy the Game.

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